The day After New York


Forget the second or third largest state. New York was the ‘If you can make it here?” State!

An outsider, who entered politics in the seventies. Running for the President of the United States in his seventies.  His  views and opinions are considered extreme by members of his own party.  During the early months he was ignored by the media.  But his message appealed to a non traditional voting bloc, voters under 30.

His anti-establishment views ,defending the importance of free enterprise and the limited role of government appealed to this group. He ignited this group, who’s enthusiasm grew by the week.   This appeal, initially ignored by the other candidates was rapidly gaining ground and by spring it was clear, he owned this bloc of voters . Not only did they pledge their allegiance to him, they opened their wallets in large numbers.

In 2008, Ron Paul ran for President as a Republican.Twelve years earlier he was a Libertarian.  His presence annoyed Mitt Rooney, John McCain  and most of the GOP establishment. His team used You Tube and Social Media (a technology underused by the GOP) to help spread his message. Donations to his campaign though small, kept him in the race through June.

Ron Paul did not endorse any GOP candidates in 2008, preferring third party candidates.  If someone within the Republican Party brokered a deal with Paul as the Democrats did with Howard Dean in 2005, 2012 may have had a different outcome.

In 2004, the former Governor of Vermont campaign appealed to younger voters.  Many Democrats considered Dean an outsider.  But Dean’s campaign could not be ignored, and his non traditional campaign utilizing the net and social media was the foundation of Obama’s 2008 Presidential bid.

Not Yet

Bernie Sanders is the ticket, his campaign is drawing thousands. People want to be near him and feel the bern.   As for drawing power there  isn’t a close second this political season he is the Rock Star.   Like Ron Paul ,those large crowds and the enthusiasm does’t necessarily translates into votes.

Lynn Vavreck, a professor of political science at UCLA, noted that it was early in the election cycle and that support for Sanders may not translate to votes.  “Just because people are interested, it does not mean people will actually cast a ballot in support,” Vavreck said. “People showing up for these rallies have a strong interest in politics. They’re not average voters, who are barely tuned in to the election at this point.”

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and two associates, “It’s important to remember that crowd size fundamentally doesn’t matter much. Comparisons between how large one candidate’s crowd is compared to another are ripe for misunderstanding.”

They cite 2012, “when press reports and GOP partisans frequently mentioned the large numbers that Mitt Romney was drawing on the campaign trail. Did this end up mattering? Obama won the popular vote by about 5 million votes. “

Bernie Sanders isn’t going to sing anytime soon.  He has loyal followers who will finance him to the Convention.  Like Paul, he has a large following and if current polling holds true, only one in four Bernie supporters will vote for Hillary in the fall.
Sanders is an outsider, like Paul he changed his party affiliation from Independent to Democrat to run for President.  Like Paul, he has little support from the establishment in the Democratic Party.    However, the Democrat’s needs to regain those voters who enthusiastically supported Obama in 2008.

Real Change Happens from the Bottom up

Many of the young voters who supported Obama in 2008 are disappointed many are still waiting for the Change he promised.   Many of those young voters are disillusioned and have walked way from politics.
In an ideal world, those voters would have participated in local and state races.  This is where real change happens.   However, most of the members of the House and Senate have been in office for decades and holding on to power is the goal.   These (establishment) politicians have prevented change on both sides of the aisle and will continue until there is change from the bottom up.
In 2005 Howard Dean became the chair Democratic National Committee (DNC) he held that position for four years.
If the DNC is wise, they would broker a deal with Bernie Sanders. Again like Paul, many of his supporters would follow him.
The real failure of Ron Paul, was not using his appeal to generate interest in the Libertarian  Party.

Yes The System is Rigged

The are local, state and Convention rules for the Delegates. The objective is control over members of the two parties.  Its important that are choices are limited to Skippy or Jif.

The top of the ticket is important for the make up of the Supreme Court..
American are angry!   For eight years we are hostages in the war of  Rhetoric and ideologies.    Unfortunately most people believe its the President who has the power.
In the red states if you are poor, Obamacare isn’t an option. Many counties are without clinics and people are without medical care.   If you are a woman,your legal right to have an choice has been stripped away  with new laws intending to make it difficult for physicians and their patients are on the books. Texas the second largest state in the country with over 26 million people has less than 6 clinics.
If you are Gay or Trangendered your civil rights have been stripped and businesses  can legally fire you for being Gay.  In resent weeks some states have added new law that further restricts the LGBT community.
Stagnation plagues many of the blue states.  Internal issues power struggles within the Democrats prevents movement within the states.  Lost in the middle is  adequate funding for education, repair roadways and polices that will attract business.
The President can not change these policies that adversely affects Americans. These changes can only happen when we change the make up state and local politicians.
The Day After New York expect more of the same.
CityFella
Sources: (Larry Sabato)
(Lynn Vavreck)
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