At least half of India’s 1.3 billion people are likely to have been infected with the new coronavirus by next February, helping slow the spread of the disease, a member of a federal government committee tasked with providing projections said on Monday.
India has so far reported 7.55 million cases of the coronavirus and is second only to the United States in terms of total infections. But Covid-19 infections are decreasing in India after a peak in mid-September, with 61,390 new cases reported on average each day, according to a Reuters tally.
“Our mathematical model estimates that around 30 per cent of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50 per cent by February,” said Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology Kanpur and a committee member. The committee’s estimate for the current spread of the virus is much higher than the federal government’s serological surveys.