Dirty Dirty Dirty
The worlds automotive landscape is in warp speed. New automotive starts up seem to be opening hourly, with the goal of becoming the next Tesla. American automakers have all but abandoned cars in favor of SUV’s and trucks,.
The world’s government’s and California has set a timer for how long automakers can sell fossil fuel vehicles. In less than ten years from now, fossil fuel vehicles will no longer sold in the Golden State. The timer has been set in the worlds largest economies.
The call for cleaner vehicles isn’t new. In 1966, California established the first tailpipe emissions standards in the nation. Four years ,later the US Government responded with the clean air act.
In Europe and other territories auto owners long chose Diesel engines, over regular combustion engines because they were more efficient, however they polluted more than conventional engines.
Fossil fuels like gasoline and diesel releases carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases causing the Earth’s atmosphere to warm, resulting in changes to the climate we are already starting to see today.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation account for about 29 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, making it the largest contributor of U.S. GHG emissions. Between 1990 and 2019, GHG emissions in the transportation sector increased more in absolute terms than any other sector (source EPA)
According to Morgan Stanley, climate-related disasters cost the world $650 billion between 2016-2018 .Already, more variable weather has likely made crops more difficult to grow. A warming world could depress growth in agricultural yields up to 30% by 2050, affecting as many as 500 million small farms worldwide. Large coastal and delta cities are predicted to flood more frequently, incurring clean-up and, in some cases, moving costs.
Government’s all over the world are demanding vehicles that do not run on fossil fuels.
Get on your mark, get set go!
For more than a century the world automakers where building vehicles run on fossil fuels and in less than 10 years they will have build something else.
Governments has offered subsidies for the automakers and for the consumers. Converting those plants will ultimately cost billions of dollars.
Tesla burned through billions of dollars before it made a profit. Tesla’s first consumer offerings was out of the reach of the average consumers. The Model 3, was to start at $35,000 however most of the Model 3’s sell closer to $50,000. With the success of the Model 3 in Europe. The major automakers focused on the higher end of the market. However, their more expensive cars didn’t have the range of the Tesla’s
Before the Tesla’s Model 3 and its innovative styling, the Nissan Leaf was the best selling electric vehicle (EV’s) in the world. General Motors was the clear favorite as they have the most experience building EV’s. The Bolt was introduced, before the Model 3 and unlike the Leaf, it has a long 259 mile range.
Ford Mustang Mach E, Volkswagen’s ID4, Chevrolet Bolt EUV, Rivian , Lucid are just some of the new model and new car companies this year. With Hyundai offering a highly anticipated model the Iconic 5 and General Motors Hummer EV is due any moment. Meanwhile General Motors stopped selling both versions of the Bolt due to a massive battery recall.
China Remembers the Model T
There are many hurdles for potential EV customers ,with affordability being front and center. Henry Ford’s Model T, made owning a vehicle affordable for ordinary Americans and he went on to build millions ,creating the Ford Motor Company Today.
Most of the electric cars are out of the range of ordinary Americans and for the industry to gain any traction the EV’s must be affordable.
In China they are.
In my opinion, this is the modern day Model T. If you live in the suburbs or a rural area, this isn’t your car. However, if your lives in an American city where space is at a premium and you have access to a charger, this would be your car.
As it stands today, at a starting price just below $29,000 the Chevy Bolt is the lowest priced EV on the market.
Who Will be the last Automaker Standing?
It changes by the week. I Initially thought it would be General Motors, however despite its long history making electric cars and the age of the Chevy Bolt, there would be other affordable options by now. The next two EV’s will sell for $60,000 and $100,000. At the Los Angeles Auto show, there was not one EV on the floor. At this date their existence doesn’t look bright.
Mercedes known for engineering hasn’t cracked the code. Not only is their newest model uber expensive, it isn’t competitive with Tesla’s Model S long range and Lucid’s Air.
Ford is doing what it knows best, and that’s building truck’s, not one electric truck is on the road but the allotment for the 2022 electric F-150 Ford Lightening is sold out. . The construction of the Mustang is superior to any Tesla. They’re not as fast or as technology advanced as Tesla, but based on this first effort, it will get there soon.
The Volkswagen Group (VW, Porsche and Audi) are laser focused on the electric market; each division has an at least two EV’s. The vintage like, Electric Bus called the “California” is a hit and they haven’t built a single one. Next year, Volkswagen will be building EV’s in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Stellantis, the parent of Dodge, Chrysler, Jeep and Ram doesn’t have a US bound EV,
Honda has a fuel cell car and hopes to have an EV by 2024.
As of this writing ,has the most flexibility is the Hyundai Group, which includes Kia and Genesis. Hyundai currently has three electric cars, the Kona, Ionic and the Ionic 5. Kia has two, the Niro EV and the Soul EV (not sold in US) The NiroEV is one of the bestselling EV’s in Europe. Unlike the other automakers, Hyundai has successfully converted existing petro cars to EV’s with range. Next year Genesis will sell all electric version of its mid side V80 along side its petro versions. The EPA says the new Ionic5 and the soon to be released Kia EV6 have a range over 300 miles.
Of course this could all change next week.
So stay tuned.