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Trump’s border wall — how much it will actually cost according to a statistician | Fox News


Image result for mexican border wall

By: Liberty Vittert/Fox News

As a staunch supporter of refugees and the American dream, I find most of the rhetoric behind the idea of the wall flatly un-American. However, no one with a brain can argue that we shouldn’t have border security.

The Trump administration wants to enforce border security with a combination of a physical wall and natural barriers that would protect the estimated 1,933 miles-long border between the United States and Mexico. Many different cost estimates have been thrown around, from as little as $8 billion to as much as $70 billion, with anywhere from $150 million per year to $750 million per year in maintenance.

As a statistician, I want to take a look at how much the wall is actually going to cost. Now, as with anything, there are unintended costs and benefits, and it is impossible to account for everything that could possibly be affected (trying to do so leads to cherry-picking what you will and won’t use). So, in order to give my estimated cost, I’m going to be transparent with every piece of information I give.

Let’s get started.

In 1993, President Bill Clinton mandated the construction of a 14 miles-long wall between San Diego, California and Tijuana, Mexico to stem the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs across our border. Then, in 2006, the Secure Fence Act under President George W. Bush authorized the construction of physical barriers (a wall and fences) along another 654 miles. About 130 miles of the border without a physical barrier has natural barriers.

So really we are talking about roughly 1,150 miles. If you drive at 60 miles per hour, that would take you about 19 hours as the eagle flies.

Alright, now let’s get out our calculators.

 

Size of the wall: 1,150 miles long; 40 feet high; 10 feet deep into the ground; 1 foot wide

Total volume of material: 11.2 million cubic yards

Materials: Approximately $8.7 billion in concrete (97 percent of the materials); approximately $3.6 billion in steel (3 percent of the materials)

Labor: Approximately $12.3 billion (given the labor costs on the original 654 miles of barriers we can assume a conservative 1:1 ratio of materials to labor)

Land acquisition: About 60 percent of the border is privately owned land. While the federal government has the power to take privately owned property for public purposes, it must provide “just compensation.” Based on previous purchases from the 2006-2009 wall construction, the cost at most would be $300,000 per mile acquired, or approximately $200 million altogether.

In total, the actual physical cost of the wall would be about $25 billion. That sounds like a ton of money. But it isn’t just one person paying for it – the entirety of the U.S. taxpayer base would collectively foot the bill.

To put that in perspective, we could give 50,000 small businesses $500,000 each to get their businesses up and running. That would be pretty incredible. On the other hand, we spend a lot of money on some absolutely ridiculous things. The taxpayer-funded National Science Foundation gave almost $200,000 to a researcher to study the gambling habits of monkeys. What was the result? Nonsensical animal testing and suffering so we could find out that monkeys like to gamble. Come on.

I could easily come up with $25 billion dollars in our federal budget that are wasted each year. No problem.

Now, I’ve estimated the cost of the wall to be about $25 billion, but many of the estimates given by other sources include many other factors: how many more or fewer border agents are needed; reduction of “virtual” walls; on-going maintenance; economic costs to border towns; reductions in human trafficking and illegal immigration; reduction in drug trafficking; etc.

There are so many factors that “might increase” or “might decrease” that as a statistician, I can tell you it is empirically impossible to calculate all of the unintended consequences – good or bad – that the wall might cause. Anyone saying otherwise is flat out wrong.

For example, according to the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), an advocacy group for human rights, the number of illegal immigrants being “apprehended at the U.S. border is near its lowest level since the 1970s.” That is true. But what this statistic doesn’t show is that the number of illegal immigrants apprehended at the border steadily increased until 2000, and only began to decrease substantially in 2006 when the Secure Fence Act came into effect.

Here’s another misconception. According to a 2015 report by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, 95 percent of drugs enter the United States via container ships or other vessels. So in reality, a wall is going to do absolutely nothing to stop drug trafficking.

One single number never tells the whole story. I could come up with multiple caveats to anyone’s calculations (including my own).

When I was 14 years old, my father and I went to Ellis Island. My grandmother’s signature, faded but still clear, “Belle Mack” was right there next to the thousands of others who had fled their own countries to come to America and start a new life. Immigration is as much a part of America as the flag, but in order to protect that dream and those rights, all new immigrants’ names must be written down, just like my grandmother’s.

The real question the American public should be asking isn’t how much is the wall going to cost, but rather what is the best way to secure our borders and reduce illegal activity like human and drug trafficking, while at the same time promoting the American dream and helping those who are fleeing for their lives?

The question shouldn’t be about the dollar cost of the wall. It should be about the validity of the wall.

Just How many illegal entry’s are there from Mexico?

 

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/12/03/what-we-know-about-illegal-immigration-from-mexico/

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Meanwhile over at Fox News……….


Image result for mollie tibbetts

When it comes to news ,yesterday was an 8.0 on the richter scale.    Never in the history in the United States has their been two major breaking news stories that brushes the shores of the White House.   The President’s former Campaign Chairman was convicted by of jury of his peers and his former lawyer admitting his guilt in a form of a plea deal.

This was the lead story in the United States and other parts of the world.

Meanwhile over at Fox News, the number one story was about an illegal immigrant  suspected of killing the Iowa State Student.    With a banner “Justice for Mollie”

At the West Virginia rally Tuesday Night the President said:   “You heard about today with the illegal alien coming in, very sadly, from Mexico and you saw what happened to that incredible, beautiful young woman,” “Should’ve never happened. Illegally in our country. We’ve had a huge impact, but the laws are so bad, the immigration laws are such a disgrace. We’re getting it changed, but we have to get more Republicans.”

Image result for red meat

Its clear this incident will be front and center during the midterms.  “Those Mexicans murdering our citizens”    Attempting use this single incident to justify the spending of 25 billion for a wall.

Fox, received a lot of criticism for virtually ignoring the biggest story of the Trump Administration.  Today the cable news channel clapped back, criticizing  MSNBC  and CNN for not giving “Tibbetts” the story adequate coverage.

Needing a diversion from Cohen and Manafort will the President keep the immigrant story alive and will Fox follow suit?

News@11

CityFella

 

 

Dear, Canada, Britain, France, Mexico, Australia, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Nigeria, Argentina,Japan, New Zealand and the rest of the world.


Dear, Canada, Britain, France, Mexico, Australia, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Nigeria, Argentina,Japan, New Zealand and the rest of the world,

Despite what you read and see on television. America and Americans haven’t lost our minds or our way.  We realize you are bombarded with negative sounds and images emanating from our great nation, leaving the impression we aren’t the welcoming nation we once were.

These aren’t the best of times for the United States

Our current President, businessman with no experience on the world stage    Who in short time, has become the President his competitors warned us about during our presidential primary.

He is easily played.   Compliment him and you’re in.  In his mind, he is always successful.

Like you, most Americans are in a constant state of shock .  Many Americans are overwhelmed by the amount of negative and often destructive news emanating from the White House.

Just when we think our President has reached bottom, he finds a way to go even lower.  He has insulted our neighbors ,Canada and Mexico.  Damaging long-term relationships with our Allies and forging relationships with enemies of our nations.    He is impulsive, and often acts without council and doesn’t fully understand protocol.

Most Americans (not all) are frankly embarrassed.

Its seems, by the hour he is dismantling, environmental laws in favor of business.  Relaxing and reversing laws that benefit the poor, laws that once protected women, members of the gay communities and people or color.

 Two America’s

This picture taken last Thursday in Montana,  gives the impression that Americans  overwhelmingly support the President and his policies.   The reality is far from the truth.  Look at the participants in this photo.  They are good Americans, however they do not represent the majority of Americans.

Donald TrumpImage result for president obama crowd

Compare this picture to the one above.  The participants represent the real landscape of America.

Donald Trump rarely travels beyond his fan base.  Our great cities  with their diverse populations, New York, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco,or Honolulu are not on his itinerary.

At these rallies, the Real Estate business man and Reality Television personality  is energized by his fan base.  Where he seems more comedian than politician, here in a friendly enviroment is where he is the happiest, places where he feels loved.

 His words and global intentions, are often designed to keep this narrow base happy.   Our Commander-in-Chief, goes his own way, he doesn’t like to be told what to do.  He oftens ignores the advice of those with decades of experience in global affairs, to spout conclusions that is loosely based on facts.   Which often confuses and angers our allies and friends around the world

He has often said, he and he alone have the answers to the worlds issues.  The Tariffs he is levying on our friends and neighbors and China, does not have the support from most Americans.   Politicians in both parties and the business community and yet he continues.

In Montana, he made fun of the #MeToo movement.  He insulted our war hero’s, Senator John McCain and former President Herbert Walker Bush, who are highly regarded members of his political party.  Both of these men are ill, one is terminally .

In the United States, he has always been a bit of a social media bully, who often acts differently when in the presence of the people he’s attacked.

While he insists upon loyalty, he hasn’t demonstrated any loyalties to anyone including those he appointed and placed in positions of power.

I have lived in the United States  my entire life.  When one group is attack , we react!    Many Americans are currently outraged by the treatment of children, who were stripped from their parents.  Simply to intimidate those who want to immigrate to the United States.  This has never been a policy of America to separate families.  Again, this was done to appeal to some of the  Presidents supporters, many of whom have long wanted to limited the number of  individuals immigrating from south of our Border.

Many of family members and friends who live outside the United States often asked ,how was he elected?   I believe the fault lies with our leaders. 

The day Donald Trump announced he was running for President and then went on to insult Mexican American and citizens of Mexico.  There was no major outrage from either party.

In 1968, George Wallace the former Governor of Alabama ran for President.   Wallace supported segregation and was outraged by the Passing of the Civil Rights Legislation.  The Governor stood at the entrance of the University of Alabama to prevent a black student from enrolling .

Forty eight years later, both parties were relatively silent.  Presidential candidate and former Governor of Florida, (Father George HW, and his brother George W,  were both Presidents of the United States)  Jeb Bush, whose wife is Mexican American, and has three bi-racial children and other bi-racial family members  wasn’t outraged enough to speak against Trump.    Not one candidate from either party, went in from of the Cameras and screamed “The statement made by Donald Trump goes against everything that America is!  They were all playing politics.   There was an assumption, Donald Trump would never be elected president.

Today, most members of the Republican party remains silent.  Unlike most of the world, the United States, has primary elections then ,General Election in November.   In the majority of the states.  Members of a party can only vote for members of their party in the primary election.  Only in the General Election can citizens vote for any candidate.

Because of our electoral system, and Donald Trump’s current popularity in his party. members of his party is choosing him over party and country.   To criticize him could mean losing in the primary.    While his actions go against many tenets of the Republican party and against many conservative views of the party.   Most Republican bite their teeth and support the President even though his views and actions are not only damaging to the Republican Party and the United States, it’s having a negative effect on our friends and allies.

His insistence in meeting in Vladimir Putin is a slap in the face to Prime minister May  after several Russian based poisonings in the United Kingdom.

If the Russians intent was to destabilize the Western Alliance by meddling in the US election then they were successful.  Our friends very concerned.  Nothing would make Putin happier than a dismantled Nato.

The majority of his party are afraid to speak out against him  because they need to survive the primary .  Even though his practices conflicts with the party and is damaging to the country.  The few member of his party who are critical of him and his policies are not running for re-election.

There is a bright high!     After the initial shock and disappointment,followed by proposed ban on Muslim immigrants.   Americans are angry!   People are all walks of live are getting involved , in numbers we haven’t seen since the 1960’s

The challenge, unlike the 60’s, it’s not just the Vietnam war,  it’s not just civil rights.   There are so many issues,created by this president we are overwhelmed.    We are less confident.  Conventional wisdom says ,with all of this outrage by the American public, there will be a change after this fall’s midterm elections.    However, conventional wisdom said, Donald Trump could never get elected.

To our all of our friends in:  Canada, Britain, France, Mexico, Australia, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Nigeria, Argentina,Japan, New Zealand and the rest of the world. .  America is still America, the land of immigrants and the place where dreams can come true.   America is at a crossroads, many American are disappointed with our government.

For nearly 10 years, there has been a civil war within our government.  A war of a zillion words which has been damaging to Americans as our needs have been ignored.   Many frustrated Americans wanted something different, something new, as the old guard had placed their political ambitions and party over the needs of its citizens.

Something you maybe currently experiencing in your country.  In America, we basically have a two-party system, this was deliberate.   The Republicans and the Democrats have made it difficult for other parties to participate in the system.  There are many political parties in the United States.   However, Americans are unlikely.  to hear from them.  They are not allowed to participate in public media debates.

 As a result, we have limited choices in this great nation.   Some, angry americans chose, a business man whose “business” reputation is so poor, he cannot get a loan from an american bank,   A man who had well known credibility problem, a man whose family has a legal history of not renting to people of color,and a man who has little respect for women, over the status quo.  Despite all the money in world, spent to prevent him from being elected,  Donald Trump became President of the United States.

I do not represent all Americans in my views.  But I am sorry.

I hope you learn from our mistake.  I believe in choosing a leader, demand experience, and integrity, empathy and heart.   Avoid, shiny objects, with promise, but doesnt have a history of performance or you may just elect a Donald Trump

Better days to come

CityFella

 

 

 

Would we have caged the migrant family of Jesus Christ?


Image result for parkside church sacramento, ca

“Seeking Asylum in America Today,” a Nativity scene erected by the Parkside Community Church in Sacramento, invites comparisons between the Trump administration’s treatment of migrant families and the treatment of Jesus Christ.

By: Ginger Rutland:  Special to the Sacramento Bee

As I passed Parkside Community Church on my way to my gym on the Fourth of July a powerful tableau caught my attention. Kneeling on the church lawn were the figures of Mary and Joseph penned in a cage constructed of chicken wire. A few feet away, baby Jesus lay in his manger, penned in another chicken wired cage – mother, father and child, separated, unable to touch. A crudely lettered sign next to the cages read, “Seeking Asylum in America Today.”

 

Click Link for the full story

https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/california-forum/article214451779.html

You Did it!!! But Don’t throw away your signs


GTY 978181214 A POL USA CA

For many american’s, the Presidency of Donald Trump has been exasperating.  For many,  their aren’t any penalties for his misdeeds.   The reality he has been checked.
There are literally hundreds of cases awaiting a court date.

However, Americans saw a rare about face from the President, after recordings and images of small children crying outraged the nation and the world.

In an attempt to honor two campaign promises, the president has limited the number of immigrants attempting to cross the border from Mexico and was hoping to force the democrats to agree to a new immigration bill that would include money for a border wall.

On Wednesday Donald Trump, signed a national an executive order designed to keep migrant families together at the U.S. Mexican border. Abandoning his earlier claim that the crisis was caused by an iron-clad law and not a policy that he could reverse.

 In Trump’s new executive order, the defense secretary is instructed to take all available measures to provide to the Department of Homeland Security any existing facilities for the housing and care of “alien families” or to build them if necessary.

The challenge for the government is locating the children.  Who were separated from their families without paper work and relocated in some cases thousands of miles from the border.

 Don’t throw away your signs!

The Executive order was for just for the cameras. The new order will allow immigrants to be sent to military bases.

Yesterday, the New York Times reported the US is preparing to shelter as many as 20,000 migrant children on four American military bases, to carry out President Trump’s order to keep immigrant families together after they are apprehended at the border.

The 20,000 beds at bases in Texas and Arkansas would house “unaccompanied alien children,” said a Pentagon spokesman, Lt. Col. Michael Andrews, although other federal agencies provided conflicting explanations about how the shelters would be used and who would be housed there. There were reports of widespread confusion on the border.

It was unclear whether the military housing would also house the parents of children in migrant families that have been detained, and officials at the White House, the Defense Department and the Department of Health and Human Services said on Thursday that they could not provide details.

On Wednesday, he encouraged the house to draft immigration reform.      Reliably, the president doubled down in tweet.

Today, the children are on lock down.  The press are not allowed access.  The White House say’s 500 immigrant children who were separated from their families at the southern border have been reunited with their families since May.   The Associated Press first reported that about 500 of the more than 2,000 children separated had been reunited.  A senior Trump administration official the AP spoke with said many of the children were reunited within days. The official wasn’t sure how many of the reunited children remain in custody with their families or how many are no longer in the country.

Americans stood up for the children and forced the President hands.

 Today, the President continues to villainies brown skinned immigrants.    He invited families to the White House that have been victimized by immigrants.  They stood behind him holding photos of family members.  “These are the American citizens permanently separated from their loved ones … ‘permanently’ being the word that you have to think about,” he said. “They’re not separated for a day or two days. These are permanent separations, because they were killed by criminal illegal aliens.

Don’t throw away your signs…..

CityFella

Ahhh Sweetie, what is this ?


Image result for melania trump

We’ve always admired the First Lady’s fashion sense.   This morning she boarded the plane to visit with detained immigrant children in a Texas border town wearing this coat.  She didn’t wear the coat during the visit, however she wore it on her return.

There is a lot of speculation of why she wore it.  Handlers said it didn’t have a meaning.  Her husband in a tweet said, ” It refers to the Fake News Media. Melania has learned how dishonest they are, and she truly no longer cares!”

Hmmmm

 

CityFella

Legal Chinese Discrimination in Sacramento


 

Related image

The Story is the same, individuals immigrating to the United States with the hope of having a better life.

Immigrants from China were unique, unlike other groups where families immigrated to the United States most of the Chinese immigrants were single males.  They were considered cheap labor, because these workers didn’t utilize hospitals and schools.  Chinese workers were often sought out because they would work for less.   At one point in California, Chinese men represented nearly a quarter of all wage earners in the state.

Some people believed Chinese workers  were taking jobs from white people.  Starting in the mid 1880’s there were laws created to exclude Chinese immigrants.  Communities throughout the west created statutes designed to drive out Chinese immigrants.   In 1882, President Arthur signed the Chinese Exclusion Act, this law prevented  immigration of Chinese laborers.

Shortly after the law passed some citizens took matters into their own hand to drive out Chinese immigrants.  Hundreds of Chinese were killed throughout the west.   The goal was to intimidate the Chinese so that they would return to China. With the law intact, many employers illegally hired Chinese workers.

In Sacramento, mysterious fires were set in Chinatown to drive them away.  Local newspapers wrote stories suggesting the Chinese brought disease to Sacramento.  Sacramento’s Chinatown was located on I Street between 2nd to Sixth Street.  The city was mostly successful in dismantling  Chinatown.  The Railyard covers most of what was  Chinatown.

Chinese immigrants played a major role in developing the Western United States, from the Intercontinental Railroad to Sacramento Valley Levees.   The Exclusion Act was remained law until its repeal in 1943.

This was an ugly period in America.  Lets hope we’ve learned from it.

CityFella

 

 

 

 

 

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