It may be Donald Trump’s nightmare: a Latino is trying to take his job. Some may consider Julián Castro, who announced his 2020 presidential bid before a cheering crowd Saturday, a long shot. They could not be more wrong. Julián Castro is a hugely important candidate in the Trump era. For Mexican-Americans and other Latinos, Castro is — quite simply — a role model. For non-Hispanics, he is a visible symbol of Latino achievement.
Most crucially, as a candidate, Castro is a living repudiation of the negative rhetoric that President Trump often puts forth about Latinos, who represent a surging demographic that made up about 13% of the electorate in the midterms.
Castro understands all this. Here is how he put it when he announced in San Antonio last weekend: “When my grandmother got here almost a hundred years ago, I’m sure she never could have imagined that just two generations later, one of her grandsons would be serving as a member of the United States Congress and the other would be standing with you here today to say these words: I am a candidate for president of the United States of America,” the former secretary of Housing and Urban Development said.
The grandson of a Mexican immigrant and the son of a community activist, Castro attended Stanford University and Harvard Law School. In 2001, he was the youngest person on the San Antonio City Council. In 2009, he was elected mayor of San Antonio. At 39, he was the youngest person in Barack Obama’s Cabinet. In short, he’s young, accomplished, and Latino — all factors that could matter as he pitches himself to voters.
Castro’s emergence onto the political scene is also a watershed moment for Latinos, because they have not had a national political leader since the heyday of Cesar Chavez. A 2013 survey by the Pew Research Center asked Latinos who was the most important Hispanic leader in the country. The top two answers were “Don’t know” (62%) and “No one” (9%). Meanwhile, three-fourths of Hispanics say their community needs a leader. Castro has a chance to fill that role, at the very highest reaches of the US government, and to serve as an inspiration to young Hispanic Americans.
And his candidacy comes at a particularly fraught time for Hispanic-Americans and immigrants. Indeed, to hear the President tell it (when he was running for President), Mexican immigrants are “bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” The President has done his best to conflate Latinos with MS-13 gang members and “illegals.” On top of that, Latinos are often portrayed in the media with negative stereotypes. A Latino presidential candidate who is educated, assimilated and successful will remind Americans that Latinos are good citizens with solid values.
Castro says he plans to focus on issues like education, health care and climate change. Such topics may be boilerplate among progressives, yet they carry extra resonance coming from a Latino. Too often, Latino politicians are only afforded a national audience to talk about topics like immigration or the border. How refreshing it will be to hear Castro discuss his plans for a “Green New Deal,” and universal pre-K.
While immigration is no doubt important to Castro, a Texas native, the public needs to see that Latinos are not single-issue voters.
Castro is not the first Hispanic to seek the Democratic nomination for president; former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson ran in 2008, and West Virginia State Sen. Richard Ojeda has thrown his hat into the ring for 2020 as well. But Castro has the potential to go further, as the Democratic Party — particularly in this moment — is increasingly welcoming to diverse candidates.
And it doesn’t hurt that Castro is more than three decades younger than Democratic front-runners Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
Because he is not a household name, Castro will have a steep climb to win the nomination. According to the FiveThirtyEight blog, his path to victory lies in appealing to Latinos, millennials, and Democratic Party loyalists. As such, he can potentially attract Latino support in a way that past Latino presidential contenders like Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Marco Rubio, R-Florida, could not.
Castro is now in the political big leagues. He has a unique opportunity to represent himself and his community to the millions of Americans who will be closely following the race for the White House. Win or lose, Castro’s candidacy is a step forward for him, for Latinos, and for all Americans.
It was all agreed upon. The Government would stay open, the he screwed Mitch McConnell and the GOP Senate and chose to listen to Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh who told him her must keep his promise or lose face.
The President’s “Must have a Wall” chorus is growing softer by the hour. Four members joined the Democrats call to keep the government, that number grew to eight, and the latest number is twelve.
The Senate and the House can reopen the Government. They would need to present a bill to the President to reopen the Government. The President will likely Veto the bills.
To override the Veto would require two-thirds of each house.
Mitch McConnell, has said, the will not present any bill the President wont sign.
Today 53 percent, of Americans blame The President and members of the GOP for the shutdown.
Press accounts of the negotiations: Trump Gimmie the Wall. Democrats: NO!
In the poll of polls, the majority of Americans are against the wall. The President’s base is currently happy with his position. The Wall Shutdown, will damage both parties with the GOP receiving the brunt of the damage. Should the Shutdown, extend to the end of the month, Food Stamps will be affected. Affecting a large part of the President’s core in Appalachia.
The Democrats are in control. Pelosi and company will continue to make efforts to re-open the government. In the Senate, McConnell has vowed to reject any bill he knows the President wont sign. The President’s is unpredictable, one day he is for and then the next day he is against any given position. This has clearly damage relations Domestically and Internationally. This last change, damaged McConnell, who believed the President. One wonders if this is an attempt by McConnell to weaken the President’s grip on the GOP?
Sarah Huckabee Sanders was smacked down by Fox News, Chris Matthews on Sunday.
After a humiliating blow to Senate Republicans, Mitch McConnell is giving the Prez a big FU! He isn’t sending anything unless its pre-signed by the Prez.
The Republican Senators up for re-election next year are defecting to the dark side (The Democrats) by the hour wanting the Government to reopen.
Today the Billionaire who has probably never been in a Supermarket .says he can feel the pain of the people who aren’t getting paid this week. “I can relate, and I’m sure that the people that are on the receiving end will make adjustments — they always do — and they’ll make adjustments,”
2 day, Da Prez is going on TV to save face. The deal maker who has filed bankruptcy a half a dozen times ,who has lost millions because someone dared to remove his name from a Casino is going to take 10 minutes to tug at your heart strings and why we need a partial wall to protect us from Godzilla, and Spongeball Square Pants.
Expect, spontaneous facts, and could be truths. The Press will not be able to harass the Prezy Poo with silly insulting questions. Real Facts or Fake News is to be avoided at all costs. So well just have to take his word……
No one can fact check him later today . The fact that there is no evidence that Terrorist enter via our southern borders, they Fly Southwest and United with your nana. Things like How could a partial wall, or poster protect us when it is estimated 35 billion dollars is needed to fully protect us? Can’t someone simply walk around a partial wall, fence or poster. So, if I were a drug merchant, rapist, or terrorist, wouldn’t it be more advantageous to simply walk were the wall, fence or poster isn’t? (the world is spinning)
No one mention Mexico, let forget the chants, the promise that American needn’t worry our collective heads as Meh-he-co was paying for it! OMG that was sooo 20-sixteen! I-phone seven or eight ewwww !
: an unforeseen combination of circumstances or the resulting state that calls for immediate action
an urgent need for assistance or relief (the mayor declared a state of emergency after the flood)
According to Prezy. We are in wall state of Emergency
But there are questions, that won’t be asked……………
Why is it an emergency in 2018/2019?
Why wasn’t it important, two years ago, when the Republicans controlled both houses?
Later in the week he is going to the border to pick out the bad guys against the wishes of his adviser in chief Ann Coulter who said in a tweet: Trump GOING TO THE BORDER is beyond moronic. Does he need to meet with a cancer patient before deciding to fund cancer research?”
Its all about his base, bout his base, bout his base, no treble!
He WAS prepared to go the distance. To partially honor is campaign promise. Some members of his Party said, you can go the distance, alone. He doesn’t mind getting push back from California, Wisconsin, and New York, they can all kick rocks. But his base in Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, who are hanging in with him with the Chinese Tariffs. (ouch) However if the government remains closed through next month, some of his base wont receive food stamps, wont receive farm subsidies. He loves his base, as they unlike the rest of us, love him unconditionally and he needs their support. I think the wall goes…
Yesterday, was a very special day in America. For the first time in the history of this great nation. The newly elected members of the 116th Congress looks like the beautiful mosaic that is America. Latinos, Whites, Blacks, Christian, Muslims, Native Americans, and members of the LGBTQ Community.
It was a moment for me. It was similar to Barack Obama becoming President. After the jubilation, a cloud of doubt and fear filled my head. Like many Black Americans, I worried he and the First Lady might be assassinated during the inauguration .
Yesterday, the cloud returned, after the brilliant Nancy Pelosi was elected as chair.
The Government is shut down. Our President has hunkered down. The opinion of Rush Limbaugh’s and Ann Coulter’s is more important than eight hundred thousand government employees who may not be able make their mortgage and car payments next month.
As a group, the Republicans are better at messaging. The Democrats have a history of self destructing. Within minutes, cracks started to appear as Brad Sherman representing parts of Los Angeles said HE intends to Introduce Articles of Impeachment against the President. Hours after being sworn in, Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich. says……..(see video)
by the time you read this. This video should be all over conservative media.
Senate majority Leader Mitch McConnell isn’t trilled with the President. McConnell believed he had a solution to avoid the shutdown but the President abruptly changed his position (Coulter and Limbaugh ).
McConnell has doesn’t intend to present any new solutions to the president. In a hallway interview on Thursday, he said he didn’t see a break in the impasse between Trump and the Democrats. Not going to happen” And I want to get an outcome,” “That will be determined by the president and Senate Democrats.”
Unlike, Democrats the Republicans present more of a united front.
Speaker Pelosi faces several challenges with this new and diverse group. While the current polls favor the Democrats this will change if the Shutdown continues.
Most American do not fully understand what the shutdown means. What most Americans understand is Donald Trump wants a Wall and the Democrat’s refuse to give him one.
Pelosi and company must do more than criticize the President as he is the master of the squeaky wheel. Wall for Wall, the Democrats will lose. They must change their messaging. If I worked for Pelosi, or if I were a Democrat. My advice would be. Change the Democrats message to……Boarder security IS important to Democrats and we are very willing to work with the President. However, I (Pelosi) believe a non functioning government presents a greater risk to our country. AND we must take care of those eight hundred thousand Americans, who through no fault of their own may default on their debt.
The Majority of the Republicans do not support the President position on the wall. However on camera, they support him. The Democrats must present a united front (on camera) an area they struggle with.
The 2019 question: Can this new younger, diverse group of people present one public message? Details next year
Yesterday , one congressman said, if the government shuts down government employees will be alright. When asked by a reporter about the potential consequences of a shutdown for federal employees. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania said he didn’t believe they’d be seriously affected because in the event of a shutdown any missed pay is eventually caught up.
He went on to say,“Who’s living that they’re not going to make it to the next paycheck?” Home cheese, maybe out of touch with his York County Pennsylvania constituents. He doesn’t believe people live paycheck to paycheck. Its not an issue for him or any member of the House and Senate as they get paychecks when the government is shutdown.
As a staunch supporter of refugees and the American dream, I find most of the rhetoric behind the idea of the wall flatly un-American. However, no one with a brain can argue that we shouldn’t have border security.
The Trump administration wants to enforce border security with a combination of a physical wall and natural barriers that would protect the estimated 1,933 miles-long border between the United States and Mexico. Many different cost estimates have been thrown around, from as little as $8 billion to as much as $70 billion, with anywhere from $150 million per year to $750 million per year in maintenance.
As a statistician, I want to take a look at how much the wall is actually going to cost. Now, as with anything, there are unintended costs and benefits, and it is impossible to account for everything that could possibly be affected (trying to do so leads to cherry-picking what you will and won’t use). So, in order to give my estimated cost, I’m going to be transparent with every piece of information I give.
Let’s get started.
In 1993, President Bill Clinton mandated the construction of a 14 miles-long wall between San Diego, California and Tijuana, Mexico to stem the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs across our border. Then, in 2006, the Secure Fence Act under President George W. Bush authorized the construction of physical barriers (a wall and fences) along another 654 miles. About 130 miles of the border without a physical barrier has natural barriers.
So really we are talking about roughly 1,150 miles. If you drive at 60 miles per hour, that would take you about 19 hours as the eagle flies.
Alright, now let’s get out our calculators.
Size of the wall: 1,150 miles long; 40 feet high; 10 feet deep into the ground; 1 foot wide
Total volume of material: 11.2 million cubic yards
Materials: Approximately $8.7 billion in concrete (97 percent of the materials); approximately $3.6 billion in steel (3 percent of the materials)
Labor: Approximately $12.3 billion (given the labor costs on the original 654 miles of barriers we can assume a conservative 1:1 ratio of materials to labor)
Land acquisition: About 60 percent of the border is privately owned land. While the federal government has the power to take privately owned property for public purposes, it must provide “just compensation.” Based on previous purchases from the 2006-2009 wall construction, the cost at most would be $300,000 per mile acquired, or approximately $200 million altogether.
In total, the actual physical cost of the wall would be about $25 billion. That sounds like a ton of money. But it isn’t just one person paying for it – the entirety of the U.S. taxpayer base would collectively foot the bill.
To put that in perspective, we could give 50,000 small businesses $500,000 each to get their businesses up and running. That would be pretty incredible. On the other hand, we spend a lot of money on some absolutely ridiculous things. The taxpayer-funded National Science Foundation gave almost $200,000 to a researcher to study the gambling habits of monkeys. What was the result? Nonsensical animal testing and suffering so we could find out that monkeys like to gamble. Come on.
I could easily come up with $25 billion dollars in our federal budget that are wasted each year. No problem.
Now, I’ve estimated the cost of the wall to be about $25 billion, but many of the estimates given by other sources include many other factors: how many more or fewer border agents are needed; reduction of “virtual” walls; on-going maintenance; economic costs to border towns; reductions in human trafficking and illegal immigration; reduction in drug trafficking; etc.
There are so many factors that “might increase” or “might decrease” that as a statistician, I can tell you it is empirically impossible to calculate all of the unintended consequences – good or bad – that the wall might cause. Anyone saying otherwise is flat out wrong.
For example, according to the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), an advocacy group for human rights, the number of illegal immigrants being “apprehended at the U.S. border is near its lowest level since the 1970s.” That is true. But what this statistic doesn’t show is that the number of illegal immigrants apprehended at the border steadily increased until 2000, and only began to decrease substantially in 2006 when the Secure Fence Act came into effect.
Here’s another misconception. According to a 2015 report by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, 95 percent of drugs enter the United States via container ships or other vessels. So in reality, a wall is going to do absolutely nothing to stop drug trafficking.
One single number never tells the whole story. I could come up with multiple caveats to anyone’s calculations (including my own).
When I was 14 years old, my father and I went to Ellis Island. My grandmother’s signature, faded but still clear, “Belle Mack” was right there next to the thousands of others who had fled their own countries to come to America and start a new life. Immigration is as much a part of America as the flag, but in order to protect that dream and those rights, all new immigrants’ names must be written down, just like my grandmother’s.
The real question the American public should be asking isn’t how much is the wall going to cost, but rather what is the best way to secure our borders and reduce illegal activity like human and drug trafficking, while at the same time promoting the American dream and helping those who are fleeing for their lives?
The question shouldn’t be about the dollar cost of the wall. It should be about the validity of the wall.
Liberty Vittert is a visiting assistant professor in statistics at Washington University in St. Louis, MO. @libertyvittert
Just How many illegal entry’s are there from Mexico?
Toyota Camry has been the best selling car in America for more than two decades. In the last few years the Honda Accord was the second best selling car in America. Last year, Toyota and Honda introduced all new versions of the Camry and Accord and while the cars two remain the best selling cars in America. Sales of the two cars are substantially lower than 2017.
Its not just Toyota and Honda, most passengers cars are crawling off dealer lots. With one exception, nearly every automaker is offering incentives to move passenger cars off the lots as American tastes have shifted to SUV’s.
Kelly Blue Book says passenger cars sales are down 12% this year. Autodata says passengers cars represented 32% of all vehicles sold this year. This is a major drop from 2015 when passenger cars represented 51%.
General Motors has spent billions in developing new fuel efficient cars. The newest generation Chevrolet Impala and the Chevy Cruise received some of the best reviews for the brand in decades. Consumer Reports said the Impala was the best in class. And despite the good reviews both models are under preforming, selling fewer cars than the previous generation.
General Motors revamped its stodgy Buick and Cadillac divisions with Cadillac building cars that can out maneuver Germany’s best. The problem is no one wants the relatively new Buick Lacrosse and the Cadillac’s CT6.
General Motors recently announced they were closing down five plants in North America. The Lordstown Ohio plant that builds the Chevrolet Cruze. The Hamtramck Plant in Detroit that builds the Chevrolet Volt, Buick Lacrosse and the Cadillac CT6. Transmission plants in Michigan and Maryland and the plant in Oshawa, Ontario that builds the Chevrolet Impala. An estimated 14,000 workers will be affected.
Donald Trump is outraged. During his candidacy he promised to increase auto manufacturing jobs. To punish GM, he’s threaten to cut all subsidies. The President is particularly angry about the closing of the Lordstown Ohio plant,in state that overwhelmingly supported him in 2016. It was a foolhardy promise, as no one can predict changes in the marketplace.
While our president was tweeting, the auto industry changed. Automakers like Volkswagen, Hyundai Kia and General Motors underestimated the popularity of the SUV’s and no one predicted the popularity of Tesla and Electric Car.
Preparing for a New World
Some believe in the next few years fewer people in urban areas will purchase cars. A new generation is embracing ride sharing and other modes of transportation. Technology is allowing millions to work from the home and the growing demand for Electric Cars may, require a different type of auto worker.
For years, domestic automakers ignored changes in the marketplace. In the early 70’s Americans were attracted to the low prices and quality of the Japanese automakers. The Ford, Chrysler and General Motors (The Big 3) responded with mediocre small cars. The profits for the Big 3, was in large cars with V8 engines and trucks
In 1973, (OPEC) The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries stopped sending oil to the US. Resulting in fuel shortages and higher prices. Buyers, of fuel efficient small cars, abandon Ford, Chrysler and General Motors for small cars at Toyota, Datsun (Nissan) Honda and Volkswagen. Many of them continued buying cars from the Japanese Automakers.
When Gas Prices increased again in the early 2000′ American Automakers heavenly invested in SUV’s Despite slowing sales American Automakers continued to build over saturating the market. The industry was to slow to react to changes in the industry, the demand for more fuel efficient cars and trucks.
General Motors one of the largest automakers in the world and Chrysler needed a bailout loan from the government to remain in business.
General Motors Positioning Itself for the Future
If the Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had their way, GM would continue to build unprofitable vehicles to keep their constituents employed.
To avoid a catastrophic 2008 meltdown, General Motors and other automakers are being proactive.
General Motors CEO Mary Barra is implementing billions of dollars in cost-cutting measures in preparation for the next economic downturn. Shifting the company’s focus toward costly, emerging technologies such as autonomous and fully electric vehicles.
Shrinking its employee ranks is part of the plan, especially on the manufacturing side of its business, but GM also is sending a message that it’s working to change the makeup of the work force that remains.
“We are going to continue to hire, because when we look at the skill sets that we need for the future, the vehicle has become much more software-oriented, when you think about the hundreds of millions of lines of code that are in a vehicle that operates today,” “That’s only going to increase.” Mary Barra
Just the first round……….
This is just first round of layoffs and plant closures. Ford Motor Company is planning to stop building every sedan except the Mustang, and the Focus which will be built in China. Unlike General Motors, Ford doesn’t plan to close any plants, however some shifts may be eliminated. Most of Fords sedans are assembled in Mexico.
Tesla and the new world order
A few years ago the California Air Resources Board required 15 percent of cars sold in California to be all-electric, plug-in hybrid electric or hydrogen vehicles. This requirement would cost the industry billions in an untested market. Billions more to build a hydrogen car. Initially most of the industry converted gas engines for short range electric engines in existing models. In 2010, GM Introduced one of the first plug in hybrids, the Chevrolet Volt, which allow the car to drive on pure electric power for up to 60 miles and then the car combustion engine powered the car and recharged the battery.
Enter the California Fuel Cell Partnership: In January 1999, two state government agencies—California Air Resources Board and California Energy Commission joined with six private sector companies—Ballard Power Systems, DaimlerChrysler, Ford Motor Company, BP, Shell Hydrogen and ChevronTexaco—to form the California Fuel Cell Partnership. Headquartered in West Sacrmamento. The goal was to demonstrate and promote the potential for fuel cell vehicles as a clean, safe, and practical alternative to vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. Within a very short time, other government agencies and private businesses became members. Today, the members include Hyundai, Volkswagen, Nissan, Toyota, Honda and General Motors. Today there are three hydrogen fuel cell cars for sale in selected markets. Honda Clarity, Hyundai Nexo and the Toyota Mirai. The challenge for hydrogen vehicles is suppliers of hydrogen and a network of fueling stations.
In 2010 Nissan introduced the Leaf, one of the first all electric cars sold in several countries including the United States. Nearly 400,000 Leafs has been sold globally. Most of the Leafs sold in the US were sold in California. Initially the Leaf had a range of less than 80 miles. The newest models have a range of 151 miles.
In 2012, Tesla Inc. A small company in Northern California. Introduced the first full size luxury, all electric car called the Model S. The standard Model S had a driving range of 208 miles, more than double the Leaf . Buyers could increase the driving range to over 300 miles by opting for a larger battery. By 2016 the Model S was the second best selling electric vehicle in the world.
While sales of nearly all combustion engines passengers cars are down. Sales for Tesla’s Model 3 us up over 400% It was the sixth best selling sedan last month in the United States.
American and Domestic automakers are investing more than 100 billion dollars to bring more electric and hydrogen vehicles to the marketplace.
The transition in the Auto Industry is troublesome for Donald Trump as some workers will not survive. The proactive measures taken by Ford and General Motors to avoid a repeat of the 2008 meltdown may not be good for the President, however it is good for America.